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Building a 13 Week Cash Flow Model

Learn to build a 13-week cash flow model for “SGC Inc”, a 200-year-old glass manufacturer in financial distress.

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17 Lessons (128m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Case in Point SGC Intro

    04:42
  • 2. Building the Model

    06:09
  • 3. Step 0 Model Introduction

    08:00
  • 4. Step 1 Convert Monthly IS to Weekly

    11:14
  • 5. Step 1b Convert Monthly IS to Weekly - Expenses

    12:28
  • 6. Step 2 Calculating OWC Rollforwards - AR

    08:33
  • 7. Step 2b Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Inv AP

    07:38
  • 8. Step 2c Calculating OWC Rollforwards - Wages

    05:59
  • 9. Step 3 PPE

    04:11
  • 10. Step 4 Revolver Base

    08:46
  • 11. Step 5 13 Week CFS

    06:24
  • 12. Step 6 Cash Reconciliation

    05:49
  • 13. Step 7 Calculating the Revolver

    17:43
  • 14. Step 8 Debt and Interest

    07:11
  • 15. Step 9 Summary BS

    03:38
  • 16. Step 10 Reconciling EBITDA to CF

    07:09
  • 17. Case in Point Summary

    02:00

Prev: Divestiture Modeling Next: 13 Week Cash Flow Modeling Scenarios

Step 8 Debt and Interest

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 07:11

Step 8 Debt and Interest

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Transcript

We now need to calculate the interest on the debt outstanding. We will be linking the revolver ending balance to the revolver balance in row 48. The revolver balance we had a beginning balance above and we see that that comes from the weekly balance sheet summary as well as the beginning balance for the term loan B. And again, this weekly balance sheet summary is a page we're going to actually be completing next. It's a placeholder for us that helps us track the changes in the balance sheet accounts that impacted this particular 13 week model. It's not a complete balance sheet by any means. What I'm going to do on the 13 week sheet is I can see that my term loan balance came from the weekly balance sheet summary as well. We don't have assumptions for the term loan. It is a term loan B, not a term loan A. And I'll change that here just so that we can all have it as a reference. This is because term loan BS don't amortize. They're more like bonds, they're bullet repayments. And although there is generally a cash sweep in a term loan B, certainly in the situation that SGC is in, they're not going to have cash to be sweeping the term loan B. So we don't really have to worry about that now. So what I'm gonna do is I'm simply gonna link to my beginning term loan B balance. Again, we could put an assumption in here for repayment, but there isn't going to be a repayment. So it really would just be adding rows and complications for no reason. As far as the interest calculation, what we're gonna do is we're gonna calculate the interest on the revolver on the beginning balance. Technically for a revolver we should use an average balance but one, it's simpler, from a modeling perspective to use the beginning balance, it avoids a circular reference. Since the revolver balance is gonna be affected by cashflow and the interest is going to be affecting the cashflow we can avoid that complexity by using just the ending balance. The average balance would probably be more accurate. It's definitely more accurate over longer periods of time when the revolver balance can have big swings like a quarterly or annual reporting where you might be reporting the high point of the revolver or the low point of the revolver and therefore kind of underestimating the interest expense or overestimating. Because we're forecasting week to week here, it's most likely not going to be material. So what I'm going to do is I'm gonna calculate my revolver balance on the beginning. I just need to be careful that my interest rate that I'm using is divided by 52. It needs to be a weekly interest rate. For the term loan B, it it is actually more appropriate to calculate the interest on the beginning balance of a term loan B. And that is because when a term loan B is actually or bullet bond is repaid in its final period we have a full interest payment due. If you were to use an average you would be having the interest payment in that period. And that's depending on the timing of the issuance and how the model worked that could be actually inappropriate. So we're gonna use the beginning balance times the interest rate. And I'm anchoring that 'cause I'm going going to be copying this across divided by 52. Now we see there's a note here that says interest is paid January, April, July and October. So it's basically paid quarterly. We know from above that interest had been paid at the very end of the previous 13-week period and it's going to be paid again at the end of our 13 week-period in column AC. It is accruing in the meantime. So we're going to copy this over so we can see the accrual but remember, we're not interested in the accrual here. We're interested in the actual cash outflow. And that's not going to happen until column AC week 13. So we'll need to actually go back and sum up all of the accrued interest expense up to that point. In order for us to actually see this in action, we're gonna have to go back to the top and start copying the model across. We've done all the calculations at this point and it's a good time to do that. We just have to be careful when we are copying that we don't copy over some of these interspersed hard codes. And that is one of the dangerous things about having hard codes in a model, in the midst of the model. But sometimes you can't avoid it and I'll stick to best practices even though these hard codes don't change from period to period. I do want to make sure that I don't copy anything over accidentally.

Now what I need to do for interest is again I need to basically take the sum of all of these interest payments and put them into the revolver interest and term loan interest rows. So I'll take the sum of all of my revolver interest and that's gonna be from 1 to 13 and I'll put that into row 18 and I need to flip it so that it shows as a cash outflow. And then I can copy that down and do the same thing for my term loan interest which is obviously substantially more. And now at this point, the 13 week cash flow is entirely complete. I'm going to zoom back out just so we can take a quick look at it. Again, the setup is rather straightforward. The cash receipts on the top, operating disbursements, bringing us to our net operating, cash flow. We see their operating cash flow has been fluctuating. We see that it starts to revive, and this is in line with the bump that SGC gets from the holiday season. Question is whether it's enough of a bump for them to actually avoid defaulting on their loans and running into a liquidity crisis. So as far as the default, we can't exactly be sure, but we don't have the terms of the loan agreements in terms of the liquidity crisis. We do see if we scroll down that the borrowing needs of the company do run greater than the availability under the revolver. However, it appears that by the beginning of January what's happening is that they are starting to collect on the receivables from their improved operating weeks, which happened over the course of the holidays, November to December. And as those cash collections started coming in, it brought the cashflow needed to bring the the revolver balance kind of back under the limit. And that's what's happening here. We're seeing the cash receipts climbing and the cash receipts as well as obviously some improvements in other performance areas are bringing the cash balance into a place where it can actually pay back the revolver as it's doing in the last four weeks of the 13-week period.

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