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13 Week Cash Flow Modeling Scenarios

A discussion of the situations and scenarios where companies can get into cash flow trouble (COVID, bad acquisitions, poor performance, etc.).

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14 Lessons (63m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Introduction

    05:33
  • 2. Accrual to Cash

    03:03
  • 3. What the Model Tells Us

    03:36
  • 4. Case in Point - True Religion Apparel

    06:32
  • 5. True Religion - Accrual to Cash

    03:01
  • 6. Cash Receipts

    04:32
  • 7. Cash Receipts Workout

    02:59
  • 8. Cash to Suppliers

    06:09
  • 9. Cash to Suppliers Workout

    05:20
  • 10. Cash Wages

    03:36
  • 11. Cash Wages Workout

    03:08
  • 12. Other Operational Disbursements

    04:28
  • 13. Financing Implications

    07:14
  • 14. Case Summary

    03:12

Prev: Building a 13 Week Cash Flow Model Next: Building a Model With Cash Sweep

True Religion - Accrual to Cash

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 03:01

Understand the process of converting accruals to cash for the case in point model

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Bankruptcy Fillings Direct Cash Flow Management Cash Model
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Transcript

Case-in-point, True Religion Apparel Incorporated accrual to cash. As discussed, this is an insider model. The information required both in terms of timeliness and detail cannot be found in most public filings. We are basically building a very detailed model. So the more assumptions we have, the more specific we can be about anticipated costs. As an aside, much of this information does become publicly available once the company has filed for bankruptcy in a US Court. The complications here are that we need weekly assumptions. That is challenging because the profits and losses, as well as the inflows and outflows of a company, tend to smooth out over months, quarters, and years, making them somewhat easier to forecast. For weekly forecasts, it can be very challenging. Most companies forecast on a monthly basis, so we will often have to convert monthly forecasts to weekly. This is a more detailed version of the 13 week cash flow statement from earlier. This kind of model is not a big picture model, to say the least. Here we see the cash receipts broken down by revenue segment and the operating disbursements broken down by category. Once we remove the smoothing of accruals, we can see that the actual cash expenditures are quite lumpy. For example, invoices are paid when they are paid. Insurance, which is critical for businesses to stay in business, are due at the start of policies. These wreak havoc with a company in distress because they require lump sums of large amounts of cash. Again, just to point out, we are seeing the gradual reopening of stores after the early pandemic lockdowns and closures. And therefore, the congruent rise in operating expenses below is related to these sales. The basic steps to get from accrual accounting to operating cash flows are for the cash receipts, we convert the sales to cash using accounts receivable. Note, if we're using sales by division, we would then need to determine accounts receivable by division as well, so that can be pretty complicated. Secondly, we need to determine the cash disbursements. Here, we're using cost of goods sold and we're gonna try and break that up into materials and labor. And for the material portion, which is related to inventory, we're going to determine the cash that is used to purchase new inventory or materials. That, of course, is going to tie in with our accounts payable. We will look at our labor, payroll, and other accrued wages to determine cash that was used to pay both payroll and benefits. We'll then look at other costs of good sold and SGA expenses, along with accrued expenses, prepaid expenses, to determine cash used for other operating disbursements. And lastly, we will look at other operating cash needs, such as Capex and any other expenses that might be relevant to that company.

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