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13 Week Cash Flow Modeling Scenarios

A discussion of the situations and scenarios where companies can get into cash flow trouble (COVID, bad acquisitions, poor performance, etc.).

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14 Lessons (63m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Introduction

    05:33
  • 2. Accrual to Cash

    03:03
  • 3. What the Model Tells Us

    03:36
  • 4. Case in Point - True Religion Apparel

    06:32
  • 5. True Religion - Accrual to Cash

    03:01
  • 6. Cash Receipts

    04:32
  • 7. Cash Receipts Workout

    02:59
  • 8. Cash to Suppliers

    06:09
  • 9. Cash to Suppliers Workout

    05:20
  • 10. Cash Wages

    03:36
  • 11. Cash Wages Workout

    03:08
  • 12. Other Operational Disbursements

    04:28
  • 13. Financing Implications

    07:14
  • 14. Case Summary

    03:12

Prev: Building a 13 Week Cash Flow Model Next: Building a Model With Cash Sweep

Cash Wages Workout

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 03:08

Cash Wages Workout

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Transcript

Cash wages workout. We have a simple exercise here that is going to help us understand how to forecast the cash wages in a 13-week cash flow model. So I have a simple little exercise here. We have a jumping off point, a historical ending, wages payable from the balance sheet. That is going to become my beginning wages payable in the base analysis or roll forward. Just to make things a little bit larger, I'm going to eliminate those columns by hiding them and I'm gonna blow this up a little bit bigger. So the accrued wages and salaries in our model, this would be linked to our 13-week income statement that we have forecast. We don't have that here, so I have these hard coded in, and then we have an assumption. The assumption is the percentage of wages paid in cash as a percentage of the beginning balance. Where would we get this assumption? Well, if we had the benefit of the previous 13-week cashflow statement or at least that analysis, we could do that sort of backtracking of the ratio and see what percentage of their balance sheet account they did pay out each week in cash. If we're doing this for the first time and we don't have that data, this can be difficult to forecast. Ideally, we would ask management about it and trying to get an estimate of what their weekly wages paid in cash are. There's not a tremendous amount of daylight between the wages payable and the the wages paid in cash, and that's primarily because in this type of situation, a company is going to have paired their payroll down as much as they can, and they really are just kind of paying as they go. So it shouldn't make that much of a difference, but nevertheless, what we're seeing here is an assumption that does kind of go up and down because of the way they do pay their employees, perhaps salaried versus hourly, hard to really say, but some places also give their employees the benefit of a choice in terms of biweekly versus monthly. So this is our assumption, so what we need to do here is take the 75% and multiply it by the beginning balance, and then since the cash wages are a deduction from the beginning balance, we're going to make this a negative so that it shows up as a negative and reduces our wages payable outstanding. Then I can just add the column up, and what I see here is that my beginning balance increased by the accrued wages on the income statement, but then actually decreased by the amount of wages paid in cash. So I'm going to go ahead and copy these across and we'll see that we have an actual roll forward or base analysis that we can use in our 13-week cash flow statement, and this is the number that we would be using in the 13-week cash flow statement. We're not as interested in the balance sheet number, but it is part and parcel of the analysis, so we have it in case we need it.

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