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13 Week Cash Flow Modeling Scenarios

A discussion of the situations and scenarios where companies can get into cash flow trouble (COVID, bad acquisitions, poor performance, etc.).

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14 Lessons (63m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Introduction

    05:33
  • 2. Accrual to Cash

    03:03
  • 3. What the Model Tells Us

    03:36
  • 4. Case in Point - True Religion Apparel

    06:32
  • 5. True Religion - Accrual to Cash

    03:01
  • 6. Cash Receipts

    04:32
  • 7. Cash Receipts Workout

    02:59
  • 8. Cash to Suppliers

    06:09
  • 9. Cash to Suppliers Workout

    05:20
  • 10. Cash Wages

    03:36
  • 11. Cash Wages Workout

    03:08
  • 12. Other Operational Disbursements

    04:28
  • 13. Financing Implications

    07:14
  • 14. Case Summary

    03:12

Prev: Building a 13 Week Cash Flow Model Next: Building a Model With Cash Sweep

Financing Implications

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 07:14

Financing Implications

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Introduction to Finance Accounting Financial Modeling Valuation M&A and Divestitures Private Equity
Venture Capital Project Finance Credit Analysis Transaction Banking Restructuring Capital Markets
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Transcript

Case-in-point, True Religion Apparel, Inc. financing implications. We have at this point discussed and/or calculated all of the components of the 13-week cash flow statement. We are going to build our own model in the next case-in-point, so this is primarily for us to understand the workings. We have arrived at the critical point where we look at the statement and see what it is actually telling us. It appears the company is using cash quite freely, and it's going to require a significant amount of recurring financing to plug that gap. And again, we've looked at why this gap is happening. It's a combination of the trends going on in the business being compounded almost exponentially by the retail closures that resulted from the lockdown from the pandemic of 2020. As this was a private company, we don't have the detail on how TRA calculated their availability under the revolver. We will have this detail in our next case-in-point model. However, we do know that they had 25.7 million drawn on the existing revolver, and about 2.5 million available going into the 13 week-period with very little cash on hand. So this shows that they're in need of immediate cash, or a capital infusion. And looking at the forecast going forward, this will get worse. There simply is not enough under the current revolver to satisfy their needs. To determine the next steps, both for TRA and really for any company that we're looking at under these circumstances, we need to know firstly is how much room is available under the current revolver? And this would be in the case of a traditional revolver that is not linked or secured by the assets of the company. Secondly, we would want to know, in the case of a revolver being secured by the assets, by specific assets such as working capital, has the borrowing base, which is namely those assets, typically inventory and accounts receivable, have they been affected by recent performance? And in this model, of course we saw that the inventory and the accounts receivable are both going to be very impacted by what's going on, because of collections, because of the need to scale back inventory with the store closures. So that is going to have an impact on the asset borrowing base that the revolver calculation is based on. We will take a look at this in more detail in our next case-in-point. Third, can the company get additional loans to tide them over, And how would those impact the existing intercreditor agreements? Adding additional debt is typically capped in an intercreditor, or ICA, and that's to prevent the lower tiers of debt from being what they call crammed down. Fourth, can the existing loans be restructured to allow perhaps for some time or more favorable conditions for repaying? This would really only impact the company if there were an amortizing loan that had a set repayment schedule that needed some relief. Where restructuring existing loans is not going to be much help is when the company needs additional capital, because then that puts you right back in the same boat as the third step pointed out. The current financing structure for TRA is one that resulted from the previous bankruptcy. There are two components, a 110.5 million senior secured term loan, and a $60 million first-priority, sometimes this is called a super senior asset-backed loan in the form of a revolver, which was renewed in late 2019. As we've seen, they currently only have 25.7 million drawn on that. However, this is calculated based on eligible assets such as accounts receivable and inventory. And as we saw on a previous slide, it appears that they currently have only about 2.5 million available under that revolver with their current level of funds. Typically, when asset-backed loans are established, there is a cushion for the company to grow into the revolver. Therefore, the amount of the revolver on paper, which in this case is 60 million, might be available to them before the revolver actually matures, if they were to grow into that asset base. We also discussed earlier that 10 million was floated by one of the lenders, but that didn't fly with the other lenders because it was gonna violate the ICA, which would've created the situation of crammed down, as I previously discussed. The provider of the $10 million of new debt was going to take the driver's seat in terms of getting repaid first, and the first-priority ABL revolver lenders balked at this. Before that could be further negotiated however, TRA filed for bankruptcy chapter 11 and received debtor in possession financing. That package gave them up to 29 million in senior secured super-priority revolving loans. This would effectively allow them to get up to that 60 million original threshold on the revolver, but without the restrictions in place as a result of their crippled asset base. There was an immediate 1.7 million cash infusion loan, and an additional 6.7 million as needed. As we will see in a moment, there were also a whole mess of fees to go along with the bankruptcy and the new financing. And as for why the new financing, which obviously involved taking on additional debt, was acceptable under the bankruptcy as opposed to in the run-up to the bankruptcy, there are some complications in a bankruptcy, which basically make it more favorable to lend to a company that is under court ordered protection. And that's basically that all the lenders are on board that if they don't do something at this point the company is going to go under, which lowers the probability of them getting their money back. In this table, the non-operating disbursements now reflect the range of fees, both legal and financial, that go along with a bankruptcy, along with the interest. These payments are given priority, because without a court guarantee that they will be paid on time, nobody would really take on these cases from a legal or financing perspective, and so many other stakeholders would lose out. So generally the fees get priority. The immediate 1.7 million cash infusion can be seen here in week one, as well as an immediate drawdown on the revolver. The revolver will be paid back as soon as cash is available, as per the terms of the loan, and to give them availability when they need it, again, the next time, perhaps in the next week. We can see the additional 6.7 million in loans coming in in weeks four through seven, and the total amount of the new loans is at 8.4 by the end of the 13-week cashflow statement. They also plan to draw a total of 3.8 on the revolver. Now, these are still estimates. This is a forecast. This is the plan that TRA submitted to the court, along with their financiers and their lawyers to make the case for protection. Let's go to the case summary now to see what actually happened.

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