Tracking Yield Curve Movements
- 03:32
Learn about the two main ways to track changes in the yield curve over time, and advantages and drawbacks of each.
Downloads
No associated resources to download.
Transcript
Changes in the yield curve shape can provide valuable insights into the market's mood, whether investors are feeling optimistic, concerned, or somewhere in between. Because of this, investors want to track these changes as closely as possible and incorporate the information into their decision-making process. There are two main ways to track changes in the yield curve over time. One way is to look at a series of snapshots showing the shape of the entire yield curve at selected points in the past, such as one month, three months, six months, one year, and two years ago. This is what you see in the chart on the left of the screen. The advantage of this method is that it shows you how the entire curve has evolved over time. You can observe how the curve has changed in shape, whether it's steepened, flattened, or shifted up or down. For instance, in the example on the left, comparing the current yield curve to two years ago reveals some key insights. The overall yield curve has shifted to a higher level indicating that yields have risen across the board. Compared to six months or one year ago, current yields are lower, but the overall trend remains higher than two years ago. In addition, the short end of the curve has shifted more than the long end, meaning the yield curve has also flattened relative to two years ago. The drawback of this method is that it only shows specific points in the past. This means you might miss significant changes that occurred between these snapshots while increasing the number of sample points can give more data, it can also make the chart cluttered and harder to interpret. The second method addresses this limitation by tracking the yield differential or spread between two specific maturities over time. For example, investors often track the difference between the 10 year and two year yields, which is known as the 2s10s spread. This difference is calculated daily and tracked to give you the type of chart you see on the right of the screen. A positive spread would indicate a normal upward sloping yield curve, while a negative spread signals and inverted yield curve, meaning short-term yields two years are higher than long-term yields 10 years. The advantage of this method is that it allows you to monitor changes in the yield curve on a daily basis. The chart on the right shows how the 2s10s spread has evolved in this instance indicating that the yield curve has flattened or even maybe inverted as the 2s10s spread has fallen over time. However, the downside of this method is that it only tracks the relationship between two points on the curve. To get a fuller picture of the entire curve, investors need to track multiple spreads such as the 2s10s 2s30s, 5s10s, or 10s30s to understand the broader dynamics.