Yield Curve Terminology
- 04:17
Understand the two fundamental concepts of steepening and flattening, and using key terminology, explore how different market forces can drive these changes.
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Glossary
Bear Bull Flattening Steepening TwistTranscript
Yield curve movements can be quite complex and to effectively communicate what's happening, a wide range of terms have been developed and are commonly used by market practitioners. These terms help describe how the yield curve is changing and what might be driving those changes.
Let's break down some of the most important terms.
First, we have two fundamental concepts, steepening and flattening. Steepening occurs when the difference between yields on long-term bonds and short-term bonds increases. This means long-term yields rise faster than short-term ones, or short-term yields fall while long-term yields remain steady or rise. On the other hand, flattening happens when the difference between long-term and short-term yields narrows. This can be due to long-term yields falling or short-term yields rising.
Now that we understand steepening and flattening, let's explore how different market forces can drive these changes using terms like bull bear and twists to describe specific movements. In financial markets, bull generally refers to optimism or rising prices, while bear indicates pessimism or falling prices. But these terms are also used to describe different types of yield curve shifts.
It's important to note that for bonds, prices and yields move in opposite directions. So a bull market in bonds means prices are rising and yields are falling. While a bear market in bonds means prices are falling and yields are rising, this distinction is crucial to obtaining an understanding of the following terms.
Bear flattening, refers to a situation where the curve flattens because short-term yields increase. This typically happens in a tightening monetary environment where the central bank raises interest rates pushing up short-term yields faster than long-term ones. Bull flattening, by contrast occurs when long-term yields drop more significantly than short-term yields. This often reflects investor demand for long-term bonds due to expectations of lower inflation or slower growth in the future. Bear steepening, describes a situation where long-term yields rise more than Short-term ones causing the curve to steepen. This can reflect concerns about inflation or higher growth expectations pushing up long-term rates. Bull steepening is the opposite, where short-term yields fall while long-term yields remain stable or rise. This can happen when central banks are cutting interest rates, or when there's increased demand for short term bonds. Finally, there are twists which describe more nuanced movements in the yield curve.
A steepening twist occurs when long-term yields rise and short-term yields fall causing the curve to steepen unevenly.
A flattening twist happens when short-term yields rise and long-term yields fall, resulting in a flatter curve, but in a more complex manner. Driven by different forces acting on each end of the curve. Twists are important because they indicate different forces acting on short and long-term bonds signaling more complex shifts in market expectations.