Football Field Case Study - Trading Comparables Range
- 06:07
Use Excel formulas to calculate the valuation range of a company based on trading comparables and how to automate the labels for the minimum and maximum multiples. How to analyse the range and compare the target company to its peers based on their financial performance and growth rates.
Transcript
The first one we're going to do is we're going to do the trading comparables. And what I want to do is we've got two methodologies. We've got CY2 revenue and CY2 EBITDA. We're not doing CY1. And the reason we're not doing CY1 is that we're already part way through CY1. So usually the market will look to the next full year forecast and I'm going to pull in the minimum and the maximum of the multiples. So if I do the minimum here, and I'll go to my trading comps sheet and I'm gonna go down to the bottom here and I've got my CY2 revenue multiple and I'll just take the minimum of that and I get 5.4 times. Now what I want to do, when you are discussing this range or presenting this range in a presentation, you really need to understand, remember which company is at the bottom and which company is the top of the range. Now we've only got two companies in that range, but I want to show you how to do this in Excel to automate the label that will pop up in case you have more than two, maybe five or six different companies. So what we're going to do here is we're gonna build a formula that will look for that 5.4 multiple on the other sheet and then pick the relevant name. So I'm gonna first do a match function. The match function, it's going to start by looking up the value 5.4 and then I'm gonna click comma and it's gonna look up in an array on the treading comp sheet. And it's going to be this array here. And then it's going to ask for the match type. And I want an exact match and I can just type zero in the cell to do that. And what it returns is the place in the list on that other sheet where the 5.4 appears, which is actually number one in that list of AG40 through AG41. So if I go back to the trading comps, you can see, and it's only two companies, it's gonna pick up the first cell in that range, which is 5.4. Now you can see we've got the company names here. So what we can then do is we can wrap this match function with an offset function. Okay? And it doesn't need to be an offset. There are other functions that you could use, but I'm using an offset function and I'm gonna ask it to start above these labels here. And then I'm gonna ask it to offset the number of rows returned by that match function, which is one down, remember it's the first line. I probably need to absolute reference that because I want to be able to copy this across. And I'm going to at the end do comma, because we know no columns. And then close, close parentheses. So you can see what that does is it starts in cell C39 on the trading comp sheet and it goes down a number of rows as determined by that match function in the second part of the formula. Now you can see here what we want to try and do is make sure that we then, if I do another function here and do max and I go to the trading comp sheet, I'm gonna take those two cells again and do the maximum of this. And then what will happen if I copy this right? I get a an error. And the reason I get an error is that this is selecting the 6.6. But the problem is is that I have copied across. And can you see that range has changed and I don't want that range to change. So let me just go in and I'll absolute reference this range and then if I copy that right, hopefully it will work. Yes it does. In this case, if you had a long list of companies, it would pick the correct smallest number and the correct highest number and tell you which company is at the bottom of the range and which company is the top of the range. And it's very, very helpful to have this done because it means when you're presenting, you can immediately talk to the ends of the ranges. So the implied enterprise value here, this is a revenue multiple. So I'm gonna go up to the CY2 revenue absolute reference that and multiply by the multiple. And this gives me a valuation range of between about 67 and 82 billion for Red Bull. Then we're going to do the same thing, but in this case for the EV CY2 EBITDA multiple. So I'm gonna do a min and I'm gonna go to my training comp sheet and I'm gonna go to the CY2 EBITDA multiple for my short list. And that will be the minimum, the smallest number. And you can see we've automated that formula for the label's already been done. And then we're going to do the max of that range as well in 2025.
And we get 27,20.7. So here what we're saying is that on an CY2 EBITDA basis, the range is 16 to 20.7. Now, although we've got that range, you wouldn't just say, oh, it's within this range. What you'd say is, look analytically, Red Bull is much closer to Monster Beverage. It actually is growing at a slightly slower rate, the monster. So it'd probably be just slightly lure than 20 times CY2 EBITDA or slightly lure than 6.6 times CY2 revenue. It wouldn't be close to Coca-Cola because it's not such a well performing company financially.