Football Field Case Study - Football Field Summary
- 02:43
How to value Red Bull using different valuation methods.
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Football Field ValuationTranscript
So you can see now we have got our summary football field. Now in this you can see that the LBO is so low and that just reflects that the private equity houses would not be a good competitive bidder for this asset. The deal comps are low. The deals that we've picked, captured were done in years when the overall markets were valuing these assets at lower multiples. And probably also some of the deals really aren't a good reflection of the true quality and financial performance of Red Bull. So therefore we probably discount that. So then for, we would focus primarily on the multiples and we've got revenue multiple in EBITDA multiple. But remember we are saying that Red Bull is at the top end of this range 'cause it's much closer to where Monster sits than it is Coca-Cola, which is the bottom end of the range. So I would definitely put the value of Red Bull in this upper end of the range. And that's also reflected by the DCF methodology. So we are saying that the DCF kind of fits with where we would put Red Bull on a kind of trading comparable range. With the synergies you can see that that pushes the valuation significantly up to getting on for, you know, nearly 100 billion Euros. So in terms of a bidding price, we probably would expect prices or bids to be close to 100 billion Euros. If we were trying to sell Red Bull, that's certainly what we would expect to get. We may not be able to necessarily achieve that, but certainly in the kind of 90 billion Euro range is what we kind of expect for a controlling stake in Red Bull. If we were to do an IPO, we probably would expect the post IPO valuation to be around the 80 billion Euro mark. So that can gives you a nice overview of how to value this asset. So we're saying a controlling stake, if we sold Red bullet into the m and a market would get probably 90 to 100 billion depending on how much competitive tension we could bring into the process. If you do an IPO, then post IPO valuation will be around 80 billion. Maybe just slightly shy of that because we don't necessarily think it's valued quite as highly as Monster, Monster's got slightly higher growth rates, but it'll certainly be in that ballpark. Now you've gotta remember though, that if you do an IPO, you've got a discount on those initial shares. So that means that the proceeds won't be equal to that. But post IPO, the market capitalization, we would expect to be about 78 to 80 billion Euros. So that's our valuation summary.