Scenario building overview. Let's take a look at the steps that we need to follow when we are building scenarios in our ESG analysis. Now the first thing we need to do is to identify the risk category and relevant scenario. And clearly we're only going to do this for more material risks, but also where we have some conviction over how those risks could impact our forecasts. Now the most common scenarios that analysts tend to look at are those that include the impact of new regulations or taxes, or sometimes new technologies and innovation. And also sometimes, the impact of reputational damage and litigation as a result of ESG risks. So if we were looking at, say, carbon risk for an oil and gas company, we may think about future developments in emissions trading schemes, which is a form of carbon tax. Or we may think about innovation in renewable energy and the transport system, and the impact on consumption of oil and natural gas. Now the next step is to map the scenario impacts to value drivers in our forecasts. And this can be a tricky step, as it requires consideration of a range of impacts. And some examples would include looking at, for example, revenues and how they would change in response to consumer demand or restrictions of certain activities. So in the case of our oil and gas scenario, this might include thinking about the switch in demand between different energy sources. So for example, a switch between coal to oil and gas, or electricity in response to carbon taxes or the electrification of transport. We also need to think about changes in margins if the company is required to absorb additional operating costs as a result of our scenario. We also need to think about changes in the investment requirements of the company. For example, new regulation often requires a step up in investments to comply with the new regulations. Or companies may need to invest heavily to adopt new technologies, even if it has longer term benefits. Now the next step is to adjust our base case forecasts for the expected quantum of impacts. And for regulation and innovation scenarios, this often involves looking at market research on the issue and trying to think about how this might trickle down to the company that you're analyzing. For example, for our oil and gas company, if the expectation is that there'll be a certain percentage shift in demand from coal to oil and gas as a result of carbon taxes, how would this impact the revenues of the company that you are trying to value? Now the next step is to step back and consider whether the effects of the scenarios are likely to cause major strategic shifts of the company, particularly if certain operations which the company's invested in are no longer viable. And this would be because their operations might have become cash flow negative, and would need to be closed down. Now these are sometimes referred to as stranded assets, and certain coal mines were identified as potentially unviable when the emissions trading schemes were introduced. And this is because energy generated using coal is incredibly emissions intensive, and therefore much less profitable once those carbon emissions are being taxed. Now the final step is then to calculate the scenario valuation, and this can be used to influence our investment decisions by looking at the best case or worst case valuations, and the probability weighted valuations.