Scenario Mapping Workout
- 03:08
Practical application of scenario analysis
Glossary
ESG Scenario Analysis SustainabilityTranscript
In this workout, we've been told that many governments are considering increasing regulation regarding plastic recycling, and we've been asked to think about how a widespread rollout of consumer deposit schemes in Europe and the US might impact on the key forecast line items for Coca-Cola. So essentially, we're being asked to map a scenario to the forecast line items here. So let's have a look at the scenario. So that is consumer deposit schemes, or CDSs, for plastic bottles are an increasingly popular policy measure for countries seeking to increase recycling rates and encourage closed loop recycling. So that's where plastics are recycled into their original use. Now, these schemes are already operating in Norway and Germany, and typically the CDS operates by requiring the consumer to pay a deposit to the retailer when a bottled beverage is purchased. Now the depositors return to the consumer when the empty bottle is placed into reverse vending machines. That's known as an RVM. Now, the CDS typically operates on a polluter pays principle, so it's the beverage company which funds the purchase of the machines, the RVMs, and also pays for the administration of the scheme. Now, the retailers are required only to allow the reverse vending machines on their premises, and they then pass on the deposit monies to and from the CDS operator. So let's use that information to think about how it would impact our forecast for Coca-Cola, and we'll start off with our first forecast line item, which is revenue. Now, the main concern here would be that, if consumers are required to pay a deposit when they purchase a bottled beverage, maybe it would deter some customers from actually making that purchase. So there is a risk of a decrease in revenues, and clearly that would have a negative impact on our free cash flow forecast, so that might decrease them. So that's our revenue forecast. What about our costs of goods sold? Now, in principle, the consumer deposit scheme shouldn't impact on the input cost for Coca-Cola, although in the long term, if this causes an increase in recycling rates, then this could potentially lower the input costs for Coca-Cola if recycled plastics become cheaper than virgin plastics. So there's a potential decrease in cost of goods sold in the longer term, and that would potentially increase free cash flows in the longer term. Now, in terms of SG&A, so selling, general and admin costs, we've been told in the narrative that the beverage company is responsible for paying the administration of the scheme, and that's gonna go into the SG&A. So we're gonna assume that there's an increase in SG&A, and that will have a negative impact on our free cash flow forecasts. Now, the final item in our forecast that we need to think about is our capex, and again, we've been told that the beverage company is responsible for the purchase of the machines, the reverse vending machines, so that's gonna cause an increase in our capex forecasts, and therefore a decrease in our free cash flow forecasts. And now that we've mapped that scenario to the forecast line items, we can then use that to adjust our forecast for Coca-Cola and create a new scenario valuation.