Model Set Up in Preparation for DDM
- 03:20
Understand how to set up a dividend discount model for a bank
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Transcript
So here we're going to show you how to build a dividend discount model for a bank. In this case, we've got a forecast for Metro Bank. Metro Bank is a challenger bank, a new bank in the UK. It has retail branches and it's been growing very fast. We've got some balance sheet assumptions, some income statement assumptions, some valuation assumptions, and then some calculations followed by an income statement followed by the balance sheet. And then down at the bottom, we've got our dividend discount model. Before we actually go into the dividend discount model, it's worth spending some time just exploring the calculation of shareholders' equity and the dividends that the bank is able to pay out. So let's zoom in to take a little bit of a closer look. So now we've zoomed in, we're going to go up to the common equity tier one calculation. Now, the regulators won't let us use shareholders' equity. They will require us to remove any intangible assets. And in this case, we're removing deferred tax assets and intangibles to arrive at the common equity tier one. However, remember, what we're assuming here is we're starting with the equity tier one capital ratio of 13%, and that's just taken from the assumptions. Then what we're doing is we're taking our assumed risk weighted assets and multiplying them by 13% to get us our tier one capital. And then we're building that back up to shareholders' equity by adding the items that the regulators would require us to take off when arriving at our tier one capital. So we're kind of reverse engineering the process. We're starting with the tier one capital ratio. We're calculating our tier one capital, adding back the intangibles and deferred tax assets to give us the shareholder's equity. Once we've done that, in the equity base calculation, so we start with the beginning balance of 407. And in this case, the bank's actually making losses, because it's a fast-growing bank in 2016. And so in actual fact, the regulatory requirement assumption means that we need to have 528 million of shareholders' equity, which actually means that we can't pay out any dividends. What we need to do is actually put capital back into the business. So we've shown this by a positive number in the dividends line, which also operates as a capital contribution line. And in fact, the bank continues to grow, and this is one often a problem with fast-growing banks is that they start to eat up capital. But eventually, as the growth slows in the bank, it is able to start paying out dividends by 2020 when the regulatory capital requirement allows us to start paying out some of the dividends from the net income that is being generated. And eventually, we get to a normalized state by 2021, where the bank can pay out normal set of dividends. So that's the starting mechanic for the forecast, where the model is built based around some assumptions about the tier one capital ratio, a calculation of risk weighted assets, and then we reverse engineer to calculate the ending balance of equity and then figure out what the maximum dividends, or in the early years in this case, the capital contribution must be.