Calculating Equity Value
- 03:44
Calculate the equity value of an example bank
Transcript
Now, we can start discounting the dividends. The first thing to do is to put a year count. This is not really a year count, it's more the discount power that we're going to put in. So start with 0.5 from the first forecast year and then add one to it, and then just copy that, right? And that will form the power. And it's worth doing a discount factor formula rather than just using a simple NPV function because on a paper printout or PDF, you can see the direct mechanics of what's going on with the discounting. So, we're gonna take what equals one divided by one plus the discount rate, which is the same cost of equity as the capital asset pricing model above. So I'm gonna take that 8.26, absolute reference it, and then I'm take it to the power of that 0.5 in the first year. So in other words, the first year's dividend, $1, the first year's dividend is worth 96.10 cents today, or the very beginning of the forecast. And then we can copy that right all the way to the end of the forecast. So the first thing we're going to do is we're going to discount the present value of the dividends or the capital contribution. Depending on whether it's positive or negative, it doesn't matter. Both need to be discounted whether they're positive or negative. So I'll take that number, multiply by the discount factor, and then I'll copy that right. And this will do the discounting of the dividends. So I've done the present value of the dividends and then I can sum up the total present value of the dividends down below.
And that gives me the value of the bank over the forecast period, which is actually negative because of this capital contribution we've got to make. But remember, the value of the bank doesn't just fall off a cliff edge at the end of the forecast. What we can do now is we can take that terminal value calculation that we did before and I'm gonna multiply that by the discount factor. And because we're using the Gordon growth model, that is actually a cash flow number because it's the present value of a stream of dividends. And that will give me the present value of the terminal value, and then we can sum that together and that will give us the equity value of the bank. Now, normally what we would do is calculate an implied LTM PE multiple. But because this is a fast growing challenger bank, it's actually unprofitable in a historical year. So it wouldn't make sense to do a historic PE multiple, but it does make sense to do an implied price to book value multiple. So I'm gonna take the equity value that we've calculated and I'm going to divide it by the equity value on the balance sheet, and we get 2.6 times. So what's happening here is that we get an overall multiple of the bank of 2.6 times, but in our terminal year, we saw that the price to book value multiple goes down to 1.7 times. And that is a coherent story because what we're seeing is that the growth of the bank is declining over the forecast. If you go up to the assumptions, you'll see that the key driver of this bank is probably deposits or loans. It can be either or. So if we just go to the balance sheet assumptions which are right at the very top. Yes, loans and advances to customers growth, you can see 90%, 70%, 50%. So the growth rate is declining to a kind of steady state in 2021 of 6%. And that is why the price to book value is dropping between the overall price to book value versus just the terminal value price to book value multiple. So that's a dividend discount valuation of a bank.