Comparables Exercise
- 04:32
Valuation techniques to determine the fire sale value of a distressed company
Transcript
Question six involves a comparables valuation to determine what the fire sale value for Verso would be. So we have our comp group here, which again you can read about in the writeup of the case study. And we basically just have the information that would be needed to calculate some metrics based on both revenue and EBITDA as value drivers. And we see that over both LTM forward year one and forward year two, typically in evaluation context we're gonna use a forward year multiple. However, here we're going to focus on the LTM ratio and that's primarily because of a couple reasons. One, we're using an LTM ratio for Verso because one, the debt capacity analysis, we wanna be consistent with that and that is done on an LTM basis. We do have this odd year with Versos forward year one EBITDA being quite a bit lower. So we would really have to, you know, normalize that and and make some adjustments to it, which we just don't have that information. So, we have the data up here for the comparable companies. If we come down below, we also see what their debt to EBITDA is on a comparable basis. And clearly Verso is much, much higher than these companies in terms of leverage. Their EBITDA margin is on the lower side. There are a couple of higher margin players and there are a couple of lower margin players in the industry. And of course, that would depend on the factors, the product mix, et cetera. So for the evaluation multiples, the EV multiples, we see a range here of 5.3 to 8.9.
Domtar being on the low end and Neenah Paper being on the high end. So we're gonna take that range and we're gonna apply it to Versos value driver, their EBITDA from 2015, their LTM EBITDA, and we're gonna see where that leaves them in terms of a enterprise value. So, Verso LTM EBITDA, we can get from the top which is the 208, and I'll anchor that so we can simply just copy that across. And now based on these multiples for each of the competitors, I can calculate an implied EV for Verso. And that's gonna be simply the multiple for each competitor times the value driver for the target. And that gives me a range of 1.1 billion on the low end to about 1.9 billion on the high end. We've got some cash and assets held for sale that will be able to factor in which is going to be the EV plus the cash and the non-core assets held for sale.
And that gives us a slightly higher EV. And now we're gonna apply a fire sale discount. And again, this is simply because this is gonna be the willing seller without a willing buyer. So we'll take the EV plus non-core times one minus the fire sale amount. And that gets us to a fire sale price of, you know, roughly 900 million to 1.5 billion. Now that we have the fire sale price range for Verso we're going to take a look at that relative to the amount of debt they have. So we're gonna go up and link to the total debt for Verso, which is the 2,879. And that's obviously gonna be the same in each of these cases because these are all EVs for Verso. And what that tells us is, again, using these different multiples, the low to the high, what percentage of total debt the enterprise value is.
So, we can see it ranges from about 39% up to a high of about 65%. And the fire sale price as a percentage of the total debt as well ranges from about 31% to about 52%.