Debt Capacity Introduction
- 01:49
Understanding the different debt capacity methodologies
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Right, we are now going into the final part of our analysis here where we calculate debt capacity, from the bottom up. Our first methodology is the Cash Flow Methodology or the Net Present Value of cash flows. Here, of course, we use unlevered free cash flows. We're assuming that cash flows are continuously used to repay debt, and of course this approach is most appropriate for term loan A, and it usually reflects some very conservative estimates.
The second method here could be Total Debt to EBITDA which is of course a classic. It's the mostly widely used in markets right now, and in covenants. Typically we based this on an LTM EBITDA but it's also common to use some form of run-rate EBITDA current year EBITDA with expected or anticipated cost savings and even synergies. Finally, we will look at the Debt Service Coverage Ratio, DSCR. It also uses unlevered free cash flows but bases the calculation on a one year cash flow forecast. So what assumptions are going to underpin our analysis here? Well first off, we could use the Management Case, but the management case should be considered the best-case scenario. We are going to use the Credit Case. The credit case is more conservative case, both on growth and margins, and it probably recognized the fact that historical problems won't just go away just because we're making a forecast. We could supplement the credit case with a Downside Case, some kind of disaster case. What if everything goes wrong? There are operational issues or even a disaster like a pandemic.