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3 Statement Modeling with Estimates

Learn to build a 3 statement model using management and consensus estimates.

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21 Lessons (72m)

Show lesson playlist
  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. What Are Consensus Estimates and Why Are They Important

    02:12
  • 2. Using Estimates In Models

    03:10
  • 3. Model Tour

    02:32
  • 4. Assumptions - What Are Scenarios and How to Use the Index Function

    03:00
  • 5. Model Assumptions And Scenarios

    06:17
  • 6. Model Historical Figures

    04:26
  • 7. Model Income Statement - Top Half

    04:43
  • 8. Income Statement - Bottom Half

    02:05
  • 9. Model Income Statement - Bottom Half

    02:34
  • 10. Balance Sheet - Assets

    01:16
  • 11. Model Balance Sheet - Asset

    03:30
  • 12. Balance Sheet - Liabilities and Equity

    01:03
  • 13. Model Balance Sheet - Liabilities and Equity

    04:02
  • 14. Cash Flow Statement - Operating

    01:05
  • 15. Model CFS - Operating

    04:57
  • 16. Model CFS - Inv, Fin, and balancing the BS

    05:08
  • 17. Iterative Interest Calculations

    01:30
  • 18. Dealing With Circular References

    05:32
  • 19. Model Interest in The Income Statement

    07:24
  • 20. Model Ratios - Do the Estimates Look Sensible

    05:10
  • 21. Three Statement Modeling with Estimates Tryout


Prev: 3 Statement Model Editing Next: Modeling Case Study

Model Tour

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 02:32

An overview of a three statement model using management forecasts.

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Model Tour

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Forecast Figures Management Forecasts Modeling with Estimates
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Transcript

Let's take a quick tour of the model. Firstly, I'm on the Model 1 Assumptions tab, and I can see at the top here, that we've got three cases. Case 1 is the base case, and then Case 2 is the upside. Case 3 is the downside. Welcome into them in just a moment. Underneath that, we've got the income statement assumptions. Underneath that, we've got some balance sheets assumptions. And then, at the bottom, we've got some net debt and interest assumptions. In the income statement assumptions, we've got the historical revenue figures. And then, we're given three years of consensus estimates. These are hard-coded numbers. We can just type them straight in. But what I'd like to do when I come and do my income statement, I prefer to have a revenue growth rate. So, the first thing we'll have to do here is we'll have to calculate the revenue growth rates using the historical and the consensus assessments, but then after year three, we've got our own figures. So, those are gonna be their modeler's own assumptions. Now, we've also got a growth rate for the base case, but we've also got growth rate for an upside case and a downside case. And what we'll then do is select one of those three growth rates to go into row 12. And that will then flow through into the income statements. Very similar thing happening with EBITDA. With EBITDA, we've got three years of consensus estimates. We're going to calculate the three years of margin based on those consensus estimates. But for year four and onwards, we've got our own figures. Again, that will give us the base case. We've then got an upside and downside. And the margin selected will go into row 18 here. All of those figures will flow through into the model. That's on a separate tab. If you go to the Model 1 tab, at the top, we've got an income statement, and you can see there are the three historical revenue figures. Our forecast figures will then go to the right. Underneath the income statement, we have a calculation section. Here, we've got room to do our base analysis for PP&E. So, base is beginning, add, subtract, ending. We've got similar for equity and for intangibles. And underneath that, we've got room for an OWC, operating working capital calculation, and then some interest calculations as well. Underneath that, we've got our balance sheets. At the bottom, the cash flow statements. And then, underneath that, just some room for some statistics they will fill themselves in as the model is built.

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