Income Statement - Bottom Half
- 02:05
Understand how to forecast the income statement's EBIT to net income.
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Glossary
Income statement Management ForecastsTranscript
When modeling the bottom half of the income statement, there are a few tips we can give. First of all, your net interest expense. Just leave that blank until the end due to the circular nature of the formula. Interest calculations create a circular and you don't want one of them in your model while you're building it, so just leave it till the end. Non-recurring items by their very nature are non-recurring. They're very difficult for us to forecast. So assume it's zero unless explicit information is available. Earnings before tax is just a subtotal. For your income tax expense, use the expected effective tax rate rather than the marginal tax rate. The marginal tax rate is used for small changes in your profit whereas your effective tax rate is where you're taxing all of your profits. Net income is calculated. Diluted EPS is taken your net income divided by diluted WASO. But your dividend per share, this is a little bit more open. Our suggestion is make a reasonable association about dividend policy. Check the MD&A management discussion and analysis. So just a few options you could have is you could take the dividend per share from last year and change it maybe by a growth rate, you could take the total dividends and grow that, or you could just take a percentage of this year's profit, whatever that profit may be, may go up, may go down. Now, for basic WASO, weighted average shares outstanding, we suggest that you use the latest outstanding share count. Assume there are no new issuances or repurchases unless you know that there is a definite policy in place for the company to do this. Now, diluted WASO includes the effect of diluted instruments, so assume the ratio of basic to diluted remains constant. For instance, if historically you had 100 basic shares and 110 diluted shares, then that 10% increase, keep that into the forecast period, as well.