Checking the Output
- 01:22
Understand how to check trading comps
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After creating a multiples grid, we've definitely got to double check our work to make sure there are no errors The first question is, are multiples rising over time? Well if I've got my value driver such as EBIT going up over time And EV is a constant which it should be, then I should see the multiples going down So multiples rising over time is normally indictive of an error But it could be correct Secondly, are multiples spikey or are there any outliers? If I'm seeing one of my companies having really different figures to the rest Why on earth is this? It could be that maybe I've got some millions and thousands mixed up, Maybe I've got a decimal place in the wrong place However, there could be a variation that could be explained, maybe by M&A activity or macro events If there's a rumour of a merger that's affecting a company This will make it's share price shoot up for a short period If we've included that in our comparable universe, then that perhaps is not indicative of what the company's normal underlying share price should be Lastly, are different multiples inconsistent with each other? If my EV EBITDA is going down overtime but my EV EBIT is going up That certainly sounds like an inconsistency We'd normally see those two multiples at least going in the same direction So do be looking for trends that seem inconsistent with each other