Modeling Implication of Support Programs
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Modeling Implication of Support Programs in renewable energy.
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Project finance Renewable EnergyTranscript
The modeling implications of these support programs are, firstly, they will make your tax calculations in the model more complicated. You may need someone who is a tax expert to check your calculations. You may also need to make an assumption about when these schemes will end. Usually we have visibility of them going forward maybe three to four years, but there's no guarantee that the schemes will be renewed after that date. If there are any direct subsidies available, we can just include them as normal revenue in the model. And we do the same with indirect subsidies, such as the Rocs scheme. It's another source of revenue. So in addition to the revenue that comes from producing power and selling it, we also have revenue from selling obligation certificates to non-renewable generators. We could look to price those at the current market price. Probably a safe assumption that those prices will increase with inflation over time. Where there are power purchase obligations, they're usually part of our power purchase agreement. We just include those in our base revenue. We do need to be aware though, that they may not last the entire length of the life of the renewable energy project, so we would need to reduce the volume that has been taken after that obligation expires. For example, if the power purchase agreement lasts 10 years, but the model and the equipment lost for 20, then we should reduce the revenue in the model after year 10. Or we could assume that the plant continues to generate power at the same level, and the difference that hasn't been taken up by an the expired power purchase agreement is sold at market prices. But that's a much more optimistic assumption. For contracts for difference CFDs, all we need to do is model the base revenue. We can ignore the fluctuations that arise because market prices change throughout the day every day of trading. If the market price is higher than the contracted price, the renewable energy company doesn't get to keep that higher price. They need to pay the difference between that and their base price back to the government owned company that runs the CFD scheme. On the other hand, when market prices are low, they get as a minimum revenue amount, the amount that they bid under the CFD scheme, so they get extra money from the government support company. It effectively fixes the price of the electricity that they are selling.