REIT Valuation Part 2 - Comparables Workout
- 04:14
Using trading and transaction comparables to value a REIT example
Transcript
REIT trading comparables workout. This is an output that you would see in an investment banking or equity research context. Basically, we have five comparable REIT companies and their associated market data and financial data, which has then been used to calculate some metrics and some multiples. What we are basically gonna do is take one of the multiples that we have decided upon. In this case, it's the price to AFFO. We'll take the median of those comparable companies and we're gonna apply it to our target company to try to imply a share price based on that price to AFFO of the comparable companies. So in this case, we have a 20.2 times multiple of price to AFFO. We're gonna take that 20.2 times and we're going to apply it to the AFFO of our target company to get an implied equity value.
We're using the AFFO from the projected year one. Now, now that we have an equity value, we can take the fully diluted shares outstanding and calculate a implied share price. The current target share price is 108.66. So what this is telling us is that based on price to AFFO, the target REIT is actually undervalued in the market. So now that we have the equity value, we can actually start backing into some of the other metrics and see where they compare to the comparable set. So the first thing that we'll do is we will calculate the enterprise value based on the implied equity value and that is going to be the equity value plus the debt plus the NCI minus the cash. Now, we have here a portfolio cap rate, and the portfolio cap rate is basically an implied cap rate based on the forward net operating income of the companies over their current real estate asset value. So the portfolio cap rate is very much an estimate and it's also not terribly accurate because we're using essentially a book value of assets as opposed to a market value of assets. But it is something that you do tend to see in these comparables tables. So we will take the forward net operating income and divide it by the real estate assets, and we get a portfolio cap rate of 5.4%. We will now calculate the leverage as a percentage of the total market capital. So that's going to be the debt over the debt plus the market value or the implied market value of the equity. The FFO yield we're going to hold off on for a minute because it is effectively just the inverse of the price to AFFO. The price to AFFO for year one, we've just taken the median of our peers, so we won't have an inverse for that ratio. The price to AFFO for year zero, we have to calculate and that's going to be now the implied share price. But we're gonna use the the equity value, not the share price because our AFFO is not on a per share basis. It's on a total dollar basis. So the AFFO from year zero, and that gives us 21.5 and we can now take the inverse of that, the FFO yield being the inverse of the price to AFFO ratio, and we get 4.6%. Lastly, we can calculate our EV to EBITDA multiples. We have our EV calculated from earlier and we are going to divide that by our EBITDA in year zero. And then I'll just copy that over since I anchored the EV and I'll get our EV to EBITDA in year two. Now we can take a look at where our target company falls relative to the comps.
Lastly, we'll calculate the premium or discount to the current share price.