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Quarterly Modeling

Quarterly Modeling explains how quarterly and half yearly models are constructed and maintained by analysts. Explore the mechanics including the effects of seasonality in quarterly assumptions, and updating models for quarterly and annual results.

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13 Lessons (39m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Interim Financial Information

    02:39
  • 2. Quarterly Modeling Mechanics

    02:17
  • 3. Quarterly Income Statement and Balance Sheet Workout

    03:05
  • 4. Quarterly Cash Flow Statement Workout

    04:52
  • 5. Business Seasonality

    02:59
  • 6. Building Quarterly Forecasts

    02:57
  • 7. Building Quarterly Forecasts Workout

    05:11
  • 8. Updating Models for Results

    02:22
  • 9. Analyzing Quarterly Results Workout

    03:27
  • 10. Updating Models for Results Workout

    02:53
  • 11. FX in Quarterly Models

    04:11
  • 12. FX in Quartlery Models Workout

    03:07
  • 13. Quarterly Modeling Tryout


Prev: Financial Forecasting for Research Next: Healthcare - Analysis and Modeling

Analyzing Quarterly Results Workout

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 03:27

How to analyze quarterly results with updates to guidance and non-recurring items.

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Transcript

In this workout, we're provided with extracts from an analyst model immediately before quarterly results are released. The quarterly results are announced and then extracts from the results are provided below. We're asked to review the quarterly results and see how those results compare with the analyst forecasts. We're also asked to identify three changes that the analyst will need to make their model following these results. So let's start by scrolling down and having a look at those results. We told that q1 revenues are slightly above the previous quarter and we're told that the company's experiencing increased pricing pressures, but they expect you on your growth rate for q1 to be maintained for the rest of fy1. We're all also told that ebitdar was slightly below the previous quarter, but this fall is primarily the result of additional costs in relation to supply chain constraints. These operational issues have now been fully resolved if we scroll down we can see that the key numbers from these results have already been extracted we have here revenues reported e-bits are and non-recurring costs. The first step that we need to take is to calculate underlying ebitdr as this will help us to identify whether our forecast margins need revising. We do this by taking our reported ebitdar. And then adding back the non-recurring costs. And that gives us underlying ebit Dart of 404. The next step is to calculate year-on-year Revenue growth and underlying a bit dial margin and compare that to our forecast assumptions.

I'm going to multiply this by 10,000 to convert a percentage into basis points to make it easier to analyze and we can see that the revenue growth was 40 basis points below the anus forecast. So that's a 40 basis points Miss. Now. Let's have a look at margins.

The underlying bits are margin is 38.2% Let's see how that compares to the analyst forecast.

And again, we'll convert this into basis points. And again the numbers come in below the analyst forecast this time. It's a 20 basis points Miss compared with the analyst numbers. Now that we've done this analysis we can decide what changes to make to our model and there are three things that we need to do. Now that we've done this analysis. We can decide what changes to make to our model and there are three things that we need to do. First of all, we need to update our Revenue growth and margin assumptions to reflect the pricing pressures and current margins. Secondly, we need to update the model to show reported results as historical figures. A third change is simply in relation to the layout of the model. We're going to need to change the layout because at the moment we only show reported revenue and ebitdar. We'll need to create an extra line on our model for non-recurring costs so that we can show both underlying and reported debit are in our model.

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