Forecasting PP&E
- 02:00
Understand the mechanics of how to forecast PP&E using BASE analysis
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Transcript
In looking at non current assets, it's really useful to understand how to forecast PP&E Property, Plant and Equipment In order to do this, we're going to use "BASE" analysis BASE The B stands for beginning and we're going to take beginning PP&E at the start of the year I'm then going to ask, what would I add and subtract from that that figure? The A and S of BASE Well what makes PP&E go up? Well that's the add and it's going to be capital expenditure Buying more property, buying more plants and equipment I then ask, what could I subtract to make that go down? The kind of the thing that I can forecast is going to be depreciation I know how much PP&E I've got at the start of the year, I've got an accounting policy for depreciation I can forecast how it's going to go down So if I take that beginning PP&E figure, maybe 100. I add on capex of 10 I've now got 110 of PP&E. I subtract off depreciation of 2, that get's me to my E Or ending PP&E of 108 Now it's very important to realize that when forecasting PP&E, you can use BASE analysis But we can't use BASE analysis going back into the past There may be other things that we did not expect to happen that will have impacted these numbers So for instance an impairment, an impairment would be a subtraction line here So in principle you could add subtraction line for impairment in here but not when you're forecasting That's the most important thing, just not when forecasting An impairment is an extraordinary loss of value, an unexpected loss of value While you can see it when looking historically, you can't predict it, you can't forecast an unexpected loss of value So we wouldn't expect to include impairments when forecasting PP&E