Multiples - Industry Multiples
- 04:21
Analyze industry multiples, focusing on consumer services, packaged software, and recreational product industries.
Glossary
MultiplesTranscript
So we've been asked by the CEO of Epic games to provide some information regarding the possible valuation of their company. We've started off by looking at some industry multiples. We've identified three possible sectors here, the consumer services package software, and recreational product industries, which might be comparable for Epic Games. We've taken data from Felix as of April of 2025 to show on the screen here. If you have access to the Felix data package, you can go and grab more up-to-date information to see if that is still the same analysis as we can see here. But from the CEO's perspective, they've asked us, which is the industry with the highest enterprise value to EBITDA multiple. And we can see that the highest enterprise value to EBITDA multiple comes from the package software sector. Now, why is that the case? Well, we can see that they have the highest growth rates, the highest return on invested capital, and also the highest EBITDA margins. This indicates that companies with higher profit margins, higher returns on investor capital and higher future expected revenue growth rates are likely to be delivering better returns for their investors, and as a result, will attract a higher valuation over current profit levels. We can also see this the other way around For our lowest multiples and the lowest multiples coming from the consumer services industry, they have the lowest revenue growth rates. Now, they do have slightly higher return on invested capital and EBITDA margins than the recreational products, but we can see here that it's the revenue growth rate that is dominating to give this slightly lower multiple. Next, we're asked to compare the enterprise value to sales and enterprise value to EBITDA ratios for the consumer services and recreational products sectors. And you can see that the recreational products has got slightly higher enterprise value to EBITDA multiples, but slightly lower enterprise value to sales ratios. Now, if we look at it from an enterprise value to EBITDA basis, you can see that, as we said in the previous question, that it is the revenue growth rate that is driving this, despite the fact that we've got significantly higher EBITDA margins for the consumer services sector. Now, the key thing to note here is that this probably suggests to us that the enterprise value to sales ratio might not be so useful as a valuation metric or as a sense check, because it is only going to be useful in the scenarios where EBITDA margins are currently or are expected to be in the future, similar within a sector. And we can see how they're quite different, which means that the actual value of the information told to us in the enterprise value to sales ratio might be less important in this scenario.
And finally, we're asked which of these industries do we think Epic Games is closest to? Well, let's go have a look at the management forecast for our growth rate. If we take the 25 estimates and divide it by the 24 actuals for revenue and take one away, that will give us the revenue growth rate for the 25 year, which is 5.2%. And if we copy that across, that will give us 4.9% for the second year. And if we look at it across the two year average, as our revenue growth rate forecasts tend to be for the other sectors by taking the 26 numbers and dividing it by the 2024 numbers and then calculating a effectively geometric mean, we can see that the two year revenue growth rate compound annual growth rate for Epic Games looks like it's going to be around 5%. If we look at the EBITDA profit margins that management have given us as well. With this 25% EBITDA profit margin and 5% growth rate, this puts us closest to the consumer services sector with that 8.1% growth rate and 29.6% EBITDA margin. So if we were to value Epic Games based on the industry level multiples, we might value Epic Games on a 2.4 times sales multiple or a 15.2 times EBITDA multiple.