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Modeling Challenge - Revolve Inc

Using a real company and a partcomplete model, the Felix Modeling Challenge builds a three statement model using consensus estimates from Felix, and then uses industry norms to plug gaps and suggest simplifications. Further assumptions are gleaned from the company's financial statement.

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6 Lessons (25m)

Show lesson playlist
  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. Briefing Call - Modeling Felix Challenge

    02:33
  • 2. Modeling - Requirements

    03:07
  • 3. Modeling - Income Statement Assumptions

    10:51
  • 4. Modeling - Other Assumptions

    02:21
  • 5. Modeling - Model Build Discussion

    03:23
  • 6. Modeling - Operating Statistics Check

    03:20

Modeling - Other Assumptions

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 02:21

Updating inventory assumptions and using live industry data from Felix for dividend payout ratio.

Download a file of the data from the free downloads section, or access the live industry data in Felix.
Access the live industry data for Revolve here: https://felix.fe.training/company-analytics/?ticker=RVLV&cik=0001746618

Downloads

Other Assumptions EmptyOther Assumptions FullFelix Modeling Challenge HandoutRevolve Felix Data

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Balance Sheet Assumptions Forecast Assumptions Live Apparel Industry Data Model editing
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Transcript

Let's have a look at inventory now. So moving down onto the company's balance sheets, they're targeting inventory days of a hundred twenty twenty five by 2027. So back into our assumptions here. So here I am in 2027. I'll put 125 in there, copy that to the right, but I don't think we can continue with 155.9 and then suddenly drop down. I'd like to see that taper. So I'll go with 145 then 135 and then that gets us to 125.

Lastly, the company had access to a line of credit, hasn't been using it, but the facility prevented dividends being paid to shareholders that matures in 2026. So it's fair to assume that we will be paying a dividend from 2026 onwards.

We thus need to work out what our dividend payout ratio's going to be, and we've got no historical information.

So if we don't have anything we can point to from the company, then let's look at the industry norm. And again, we can look to Felix to find these industry norms.

If I go to the front page of Felix again, instead of going into analyze and choosing a company, I'll go up to data at the top. And Revolve is a US company, so I'll go into building forecasts in the US. We've got the whole of the market and then individual industries. I want to choose one of those individual industries and it's apparel that Revolve is part of, and if I go all the way to the right here, I can see that the forward dividend payout ratio, the kind of average for the industry is 29%. I haven't got a better figure than that, so we'll definitely be using that. That'll be from 2026 onwards, 29%, and copy it to the right. Now that we've got that dividend payout ratio in, I scroll down to my balance sheet calcs and I can see that dividend payment going out. Great.

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