Lagging Indicators
- 04:05
Understand the main lagging macroeconomic indicators with particular focus on unemployment and consumer credit
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Your first question may be, how could they be useful if they in fact just lag the overall pace of the economy? Well, they're used for confirmation. And they're used for confirmation on the direction of the economy, or a peak, or a trough, or an inflection after the fact, which in fact could be very, very helpful. Now, similar to leading indicators, we have many lagging indicators here in the US. Inventory to sales, unit labor costs, inflation information, prime lending rates, and commercial loans outstanding. The two most widely used, however, are duration of unemployment and consumer credit, especially how it is relative to personal income. And we'll dig into those a little deeper. First, unemployment, and more specifically the duration of unemployment. And that's measured by taking the average number of weeks of unemployment for individuals in the economy. And that's used again as a confirmation that the business cycle has shifted either to an expansion phase or a contraction phase. Now, why does it lag the general trend of the economy? Well, let's look at an example. Now, the lagging nature of this metric is obvious, because businesses wait until downturns look genuine to lay off and wait until recoveries to look secure to rehire. This measure lags the cycle both on the way up and on the way down of the business cycle. And lastly, this metric is released on a monthly basis, usually a few weeks from the measurement date. So it's a fairly recent look at the unemployment situation in the economy. In here is our usual historical chart with the highlighted area in gray, the financial crisis of the past decade. And as you can see, GDP bottomed in Q2 of 2009, but unemployment did not peak, or the duration of unemployment did not peak until well after that. We're looking here at Q3 2011. Again, economists and analysts don't necessarily look at one of these metrics or indicators to analyze the economic cycle, but they're each provided data point in their overall analysis. The next indicator is consumer credit, and more specifically the amount of debt that each consumer has in the economy on average. And it's usually looked at in terms of a ratio, so it's relative to personal income. And it gives us an indication of spending capacity for consumers and their level of confidence. So because most consumers or many consumers only borrow heavily when they are very confident, this measure is going to lag any cyclical upturn in the economy. But that is also overstays cyclical downturns, because households have trouble adjusting to income losses, causing it to lag on the downside. And as it relates to confidence, since individuals tend to borrow when they expect favorable economic conditions in the near term, this can also measure that consumer confidence level in the broad economy. And lastly, this measure is not measured as frequently, only quarterly, and released by the the board and governors of the Fed. And here is our historical chart for consumer credit as a percentage of personal income. Again, our financial crisis highlighted in gray. GDP again bottomed in Q2 of 2009, but that consumer credit measure did not bottom until March of 2013. So well, well after the trough in the economy. And again, it's seen as a confirm that the economy has transitioned, and the recent uptick in economic growth or GDP, it's not just noise, and not just a short-term countertrend move.