M&A Case Study - Leverage Analysis
- 04:05
Calculate and analyze the leverage multiples for an acquisition deal and how they affect the credit rating of the acquirer. Learn how to use the model to change the financing assumptions and see the impact on the EPS accretion and the leverage ratios.
Glossary
EPS leverage multiples M&ATranscript
So if we come down here, we now can take a look at the leverage multiples. Now, the leverage multiples are important because we in some cases are assuming that the business will take on a large amount of debt. What we haven't thought about is what happens to the multiples. So let's pull in the net debt pre-deal for the acquirer, and I can go and get that from the information on the right here. So I'm gonna take the debt and debt equivalence minus the cash number. So that's our net indebtedness. I can just absolute reference that because I'm gonna keep that constant through that forecast period for those years. And then the acquirer EBITDA, pre-deal, I'm going to go and pull that from our forecast.
And then the acquirer net debt over EBITDA. So this gives us the existing development of their leverage ratio over time, assuming the transaction doesn't happen. Now what we want to do is overlay what happens if the deal completes. Will the acquisition net debt, remember we're refinancing the old debt, so it's just the acquisition debt that will come in. So I'll go and get the acquisition debt from the sources of funds and that will be pulled in and we're gonna make the simplifying assumption that it doesn't get paid down. So the pro forma net debt is going to be the acquirer's net debt, pre-deal, plus the acquisition debt. So that's going to be the post deal debt. So the pro forma EBITDA we can take from above as it's calculated for us. And that's the acquirer's EBITDA plus the targets EBITDA plus the synergies because that will improve the EBITDA position as well. And once we've got that, we can recalculate what the multiple will be. So we've got the proforma net debt divided by the proforma EBITDA, and you can see that the indebt is a significant jump up. so is a full turn from 1.8 to 2.8, but that does decline over the three years to 2.4. So it's still elevated from what it was, but the rating agencies do like to see that there is de-leveraging in the business. And currently the acquirer's credit rating is an A plus. And I think that as long as they convince the rating agencies that they're going to delever, then that rating probably shouldn't change. Now if the leverage doesn't delever, then that potentially will put that credit rating at risk. So it's always worth kind of thinking about how much debt can we put onto the transaction And what happens to the credit rating. Now this is on the basis of the current set of assumptions. Let's change this to a 0% equity finance deal. So we're maximizing our leverage. It's actually an accretive deal by the third year. But what happens to our leverage ratios, they get blown into smitherines. Now, if we did a transaction like this, it's likely the markets would hate it. See, it's huge amounts of financial risk. It's a leverage about level of leverage, net debt of $116 billion, which in of itself would be very, very difficult to raise in the markets, going out and raising 88 billions of billion dollars of debt for one company probably gonna be almost impossible. So this actually is not a sensible structure either from the just ability to raise debt number one, but also the leverage multiple as well. The markets would really hate that. So we've done our leverage ratios, we've done our price analysis.