LBO Case Study - Return to Equity Holders
- 03:20
Calculate the return to equity holders in a leveraged buyout model. How to estimate the enterprise value, net debt, equity value, cash flows, and internal rate of return for each year of the forecast.
Glossary
Cash Flows Enterprise Value Equity Value IRR LBO Net DebtTranscript
For the return to equity holders, we are going to analyze what the returns to equity holders are over a number of years. We have an assumption here that is a year four exit. So if I just type in hard number 1 here, and then I add 1 to that each year, so I get a kind of count, a year count here, then what I'm going to do is calculate the value of the business in each year. And remember, I've got an assumption for the exit multiple. So if I go and get the assumption, which is 25 times, I just need to absolutely reference that and multiply it by the EBITDA in that year. So I'm gonna go and get my EBITDA number, which is the adjusted EBITDA, because we need to reflect the benefits of the cost savings. And that means at the end of year one, we estimate the enterprise value of the business is about, it's worth about 87.9 billion euros. So we're gonna subtract the net debt outstanding at that point. So I'm gonna take the ending balance of the senior debt, plus the ending balance of the unsecured debt minus the cash balance, which of course is 0 initially.
And then I'm going to calculate the equity value, which is just the enterprise value minus net debt. We're simplifying it here. We're not worrying about non controlling interests or anything like that. So I'm estimating that the equity value at the end of year one is gonna be about 70.3 billion. I'm gonna copy this right to the end of the forecast because then what I want to do is I want to calculate the cash flows to equity holders. The initial cash show to equity holders is not the purchase price of the equity because that's also funded by debt. It's actually the equity ticket or how much equity the private equity funders put into the transaction, which is a huge amount in this deal, over 60 billion Euros. But I'm gonna take that and I'm gonna make it negative because that's how much they put into the transaction. And then what we're going to do is calculate their exit value. And we're gonna assume, again for simplicity, and this is pretty reasonable for this type of model, that they only get the value when they sell the business. So we're gonna do an if statement that says, if my assumption of year four is equal to the year count, which obviously it's not, then pull in the money, show me the money. If not, which it is in this year, just put 0 in the cell. So you'll find that we just get 0 in that cell. So if the exit year is equal to the account showing the money, if not 0. So what we should see when I copy this, right, is that in column J or year four, we will see the equity value in the model, but no other year. And That's that's correct. And finally, we can do the internal rate of return. And I'm gonna use a simple IRR calculation here, which it just equals IRR, that initial investment, and then go all the way to the end, hit enter, and I get 16.6% as my return.