Risks to Your Thesis
- 02:40
How to identify the risks to your investment thesis and why they are important.
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Glossary
Risks to thesis Technical factorsTranscript
Risks your thesis. No matter how confident and analyst is in their investment recommendation we must always seek to understand and identify the risks to your thesis. This isn't about saying that the analyst doesn't know their stuff it's just about acknowledging that there will always be some uncertainties. Once we've identified the risks and uncertainties it's important that we communicate these when we're discussing our investment recommendations, as it helps investors to weigh up the risks and uncertainties before they make the decision to invest or diverse. Although what constitutes a risk to your thesis is potentially very broad we can classify them into three groups. The first is over or underestimating the delta in your forecast compared with what the market is pricing in, and as much as possible, we try to capture this uncertainty in our Bull and Bear scenarios. The second type of risk is technical factors and these are risks associated with how the shares trade some good examples of this could be firstly a lack of liquidity in the shares which create risks for a cell recommendation. This is because it can result in a short squeeze which is where a number of market participants suddenly want to close out their short positions, but there are insufficient shares traded in the market to do so and this forces the share price up dramatically, which is extremely problematic for the remaining short sellers. A second example of a technical factor could be the potential for a new major buyer to enter the market. For example, a private equity fund or a new major seller to enter the market. For example, a large shareholder as this could disrupt the share price and therefore undermine the analysts recommendation. The third type of risk reflects uncertainties or factors which are not covered in the investment thesis, but which still have the ability to undermine the investment recommendation? For example analyst might have conducted analysis on a company's future profit margins which leads them to place the company on a buy recommendation. However, if the analyst is aware that the company also has a major piece of litigation outstanding which is successful could dramatically lower the share price. Then the analysts should acknowledge this to alert investors to this uncertainty in case investors have their own views regarding the litigation. When thinking about risks on uncertainties, it's important not to confuse these with general risks to the company, such as competition risk or interest rate risk. We're talking here about material risks relating to your forecast and valuation that is risks, which could undermine your investment thesis.