Risks in Derivatives - Counterparty Credit Risk
- 03:39
Analyzing how derivatives are exposed to Counterparty Credit Risk.
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Glossary
Counterparty Credit Risk Derivatives RiskTranscript
Users of derivatives must understand the potential counterparty credit risk that these instruments come with. Counterparty credit risk commonly referred to as counterparty risk, represents a segment of credit risk. It refers to the potential for loss that arises when one participant in a financial market transaction fails to fulfill their obligations to the other party. This form of risk is particularly pronounced in over the counter or OTC derivative transactions. The heightened risk in these transactions often stems from the absence of central clearing counterparties or a CCP to provide a safeguard for the parties involved.
Counterparty risk for derivatives can be grouped into two categories, pre-settlement risk and settlement risk. Pre-settlement risk is the risk associated with the possibility of a counterparty defaulting before the contract reaches its expiration date. That is before the transaction has been finally settled. It represents the cost that would be incurred by setting up a similar derivative with another counterparty. Should the counterparty to the current trade go into liquidation before the maturity of the contract? Settlement risk is the risk that materializes if a counterparty defaults during the settlement phase of a transaction when money is owed by that counterparty, which is not paid. This can lead to significant losses, especially since it is often challenging to have any effective mitigation strategies. Counterparty credit risk is a complex risk to measure and quantify. There are a number of reasons for this complexity. The first issue is the bilateral nature of counterparty credit risk, as opposed to the unilateral aspect of a conventional loan, which adds a layer of complexity. In the context of a loan credit risk is predominantly a concern for the lender. However, in the case of counterparty credit risk, the risk is dynamic and can shift between parties over time due to changing market conditions. Counterparty credit risk is only faced by the counterparty to the trade that is currently making a profit from their position in the trade. Since counterparty credit risk is the risk that this gain isn't made to you by the counterparty to the trade, and either side of the trade could win or lose from that trade. It's also a fluid risk where initially, one party might bear the risk, but as market conditions evolve, the risk can swing to the counterparty.
Furthermore, counterparty credit risk is not purely a credit risk. It's a hybrid intricately intertwined with market risk. It is influenced by two key components, the credit worthiness of the counterparty and the fluctuations in the underlying Market risk factors. This dual dependence creates a dynamic relationship that can be challenging to quantify accurately. Despite these complexities, the foundational elements driving counterparty credit risk are akin to traditional lending credit risk, hinging on two critical metrics, the probability of default PD and the exposure at default EAD, the PD gauges the likelihood that a counterparty might fail to meet its obligations while EAD estimates the extent of exposure at the point of default.