DCF Case Study - Terminal Value
- 04:38
Calculate the terminal value of a firm using the Gordon growth model and how to check the implied terminal EBITDA multiple.
Glossary
EBITDA Multiple Gordon Growth ModelTranscript
Next we want to calculate the terminal value of the firm. And we've been given a long-term growth rate and that long-term growth rate, which is hard numbered, should be consistent with the final growth rate in the forecast period of 2.6. Because what we're saying is that from that point onwards, our column O or 2032, the company is going to grow to infinity and beyond at a constant growth rate. So we need to make sure our asset efficiency ratios reflect that. I'm going to pull in WACC from the WACC sheet in this model, and we calculated that at 6.5%. Then what I want to do is I want to calculate the terminal value using the Gordon growth model. And the way the Gordon growth model works is it takes the first free cash flow and it will discount that and all future cash flows growing at a constant rate. It will discount those as well. Now because it discounts the first cash flow that we give it actually, we don't want to use 2032 because it will give us the value actually in 2031. So what most analysts do because they want to put their terminal value in the final year of the forecast is that they actually grow the 2032 or the last year's cashflow out one more year. And that would give us the cashflow in 2033. In this case, and because I'm growing a cashflow, I used to need to use the long-term growth rate, and then I'll divide that by the cost of capital, which is 6.5 minus again the long-term growth rate of 2.6. So what that does, it gives me the value in this case of Red Bull beyond the 31st of December, 2032. And because we're assuming the cashflows are in the middle of the year, and because we use the cashflow in the middle of 2033 because we grew the 2032 cashflow at one more year, that means that that 101,825 number is in the middle of 2032. So we are valuing the firm at about 101.8 billion Euros. Now we've used a golden growth model, but it's useful to do a sandy check and we can do that by calculating an implied terminal EBITDA multiple. And the multiple we are effectively implying is an LTM multiple. And this is because when we move multiples through time, it's always good to use a multiple that has a consistent relationship between the value date and the earnings period. We could use an NTM our next 12 months, multiple, but it's more common to use an LTM multiple. And what this means is that when I come to do the calculation, I need to make sure that if I use my EBITDA in 2032, that the value number is at the end of the period. And the problem we have is that the value number we have created or calculated of 101, that is a mid-year value number. So what we have to do first is we've got to move that to the end of 2032. And when we're moving value numbers, we use the WACC calculation. So I'll take that number times one plus the WACC, and I'm gonna take it to the power of 0.5, and that will actually move it out six months forward to the end of 2031. Now it's, you can see it's slightly higher because that's the value that investors would buy. The ongoing stream of cash flows at the end of 2032 compared to what they'd pay a 101,825 in the middle of 2032. But because I want to imply multiple, I'm gonna take that calculation and just divide it by the EBITDA in this 2032 year. And that gives me an implied terminal multiple of 16.8 times. And that is using a year end value divided by the earnings 12 months prior to that, which is for the year 2032.