Spreads and Shifts
- 02:10
An overview of potential trades given investor views on changes in credit spreads
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So how do we trade credits then if we expect different scenarios for the individual bond or indeed the economy? Well, of course if we look at an individual credit and we expect the credit worthiness of that corporate bond to improve, that implies to us that the spread is going to contract. So the spread is going to be smaller. And what is the typical trading pattern following that? Of course, is that we sell the treasury bond to sell the risk-free bonds, and we buy into the corporate bond. Another way to do it is to trade a CDS, of course. So we could then sell the CDS as the credit worthiness then improves, that CDS will trade lower, and we'll be able to monetize the difference. So this scenario of improved credit worthiness, and the trading patterns following it, would be of course be very similar to a general expectations of improved general economy. What if we expect the credit worthiness to deteriorate? Well then of course we'd expect the spread to widen. It'd be logical then for us to buy treasury bonds. So we go into the less risky asset, and we will sell off our corporate bond. We could also do this through the CDS market. Of course, we could buy the CDS, pay the premium, pay the insurance premium, and then as the spread widens, of course we should be able to trade out of the CDS position and monetize the difference. Credit spreads fluctuate for many different reasons, of course. It can be due to changes in expected inflation, changes in the supply of credits, and the demand for investments within particular markets or durations. This slide shows a number of different ways that yield curves can shift. You'll have flattening steepening, parallel shifts, twists, hump-ness, et cetera, et cetera. So there's a number of different ways that yield curves can change. Just note though, that in reality, corporate and government yield curves might not move in the same way. So you can have different shifts in the corporate yield curve versus the government yield curve. So spreads will see different changes depending on maturities. That's important to bear in mind. Spreads will not change uniformly across maturities.