Main Model - Revenues and Variable Costs
- 03:58
Modeling a large project finance model - revenues and variable costs
Transcript
Next we're gonna work on revenues and variable costs during the operational period. We're gonna start with our crude oil production, and we have that information in the sources and uses tab under the assumptions section.
So we can see here that we have a total reserves of crude oil of 59.6. We're gonna lock that in and we're gonna multiply that times the percent production in the first year.
Let's do the same for our natural gas.
Let's take the total reserves of 172.8, lock that in and multiply times our percent production in year one.
Now we need to convert our natural gas from cubic feet to millions of barrels of oil equivalent. So we're gonna take the 8.6 and we're gonna divide it by our key conversion ratio of 5,800. We're gonna lock that in and we're gonna multiply these times a thousand to make it millions.
Now we can add up our 3 million of crude oil production with the 1.5 of natural gas to get our total production of 4.5 millions of barrels of oil equivalent. Next, we can get our crude oil revenues.
We're gonna take the total production of three and multiply times our oil price forecast, which is also available in the sources and uses of funds tab, and that is 74.
We can do the same for our natural gas revenues. We'll take the 1.5 and multiply it times our forecast of the oil price of 74. We can add this two to get our total revenues.
Now let's move on to our costs first by linking our lifting costs and transportation costs to our assumption tab. So let's go ahead and bring those numbers in, and that would be five for the case of the lifting costs and three for our transportation costs. We add the two to get our total variable cost per barrel of oil equivalent. From here, we can compute our total costs, starting with our lifting costs. So we're gonna take the five and we're gonna multiply this times our total production of 4.5. We'll do something very similar for our transportation costs. We'll take the three times the total production Of 4.5 million, and we have one more cost to estimate, and that is our royalties, which are estimated as a percentage of revenue. Now that percentage assumption is in the sources and uses of funds tab, and that would be 15% for the first year of operations. We're gonna multiply these times our revenue forecast in year one of three 30.8, and that gives us 49.6. We can then sum up all of these values to get our total variable costs of 89 or 85.4. So lastly, we need to take all of our calculations in this first year of operations and copy them to the right, all the way to the very last year of our operational period.