M&A Analysis - Return On Invested Capital Model
- 02:44
Analysis - ROIC - Model
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M&A Analysis Return On Invested Capital ROICTranscript
To make sure we've got the right numbers running through this model. We need to make sure we've got our iterations enabled and we've got the model switch turned on model intro tab.
So we're trying to calculate rohic here return on invested capital and let's have a look at the invested Capital to start with in f45 got quite a large formula here. But what does it represent? Well, we've got here the equity purchase price.
Plus the target's net debt.
Plus the target's NCI and that represents all of the invested capital in this company the next period we start with that. So this is now going to one year after the deal dates we start with that same figure, but then we add in capital expenditure incurred during the year that increases your invested capital.
Subtract off any DNA because that of course reduces your invested capital and then add any extra cash that you've invested in working capital or other long-term assets and other long-term liabilities.
So we can see that our invested Capital has gone up very marginally from the deal date to one year forward.
What about the returns that we earn from that well the returns we see a little bit further up.
So we start with the Monsanto Standalone ebit, but that will go up by the synergies excluding any capex synergies.
So that gets us our Monsanto proforma ebit.
We then need to tax this we're going to tax the Monsanto Standalone ebit and then we're going to take off the tax on the synergies, but we're going to exclude those capex energies capex energies. Don't affect the income statements. So they have not been included here and the capacities have not been included in the tax on synergies here.
That will then get us to our Pro former Monsanto.
No pants. That's our return. So we've got the return and we've got the invested Capital we need to make sure that is higher than the target's whack.
So let's go down and compare.
We've calculated a row of 3.6% and we could have calculated that on the average invested capital. In this case. It would have made very little difference.
And the monsanto's whack assumed here is 7% And what do we find one year after the deal? Our roic is not enough to cover the whack.
Oh dear, if this was an important metric for deciding whether this deal was to go ahead or not. Unfortunately, this would make sure the deal did not go ahead.
It's often a little bit unfair to judge a deal just based on the heroic one year after the deal. So let's have a look at years two three and four, but unfortunately again, we are falling short of that. Whack of 7% Unfortunately. It looks like this deal. Perhaps shouldn't be going ahead.