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3 Statement Modeling with Iterations

Understand how to model a 3 statement model and how to deal with circular references.

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22 Lessons (75m)

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  • Description & Objectives

  • 1. 3 Statement Model Steps

    03:25
  • 2. Entering Historical Data

    03:34
  • 3. Model 1 Walkthrough

    01:47
  • 4. Model 1 Historical Data

    03:59
  • 5. Ratios and Forward Assumptions

    02:24
  • 6. Income Statement

    03:03
  • 7. Model 1 Income Statement

    06:07
  • 8. Balance Sheet

    02:34
  • 9. Model 1 Balance Sheet Calcs

    05:28
  • 10. Model 1 Balance Sheet

    05:07
  • 11. Cash Flow Statement

    03:59
  • 12. Model 1 Cash Flow Statement

    06:08
  • 13. Cash and Revolver

    03:10
  • 14. Model 1 Cash and Revolver

    02:50
  • 15. Interest Calculations

    01:28
  • 16. Model 1 Interest Calculations

    03:16
  • 17. Interest and Circular References

    04:39
  • 18. Model 1 Interest in Income Statement

    05:27
  • 19. Understanding Model Drivers

    02:27
  • 20. Model 1 Check Ratios and Statistics

    03:21
  • 21. Prepare for Handoff

    02:44
  • 22. Three Statement Modeling with Iteration Tryout


Prev: Introduction to Modeling Next: 3 Statement Model Editing

Ratios and Forward Assumptions

  • Notes
  • Questions
  • Transcript
  • 02:24

Understand how to generate assumptions from historic data.

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Transcript

Ratios and forward assumptions.

Here we see both historical ratios and forward assumptions. The first two columns show historical ratios. That's Year -1 and Year 0. These are based on the figures reported by the company and are therefore referred to as actuals, shown with the letter A. The five columns on the right show us forecast assumptions. That's years 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. And these are based on analyst forecasts, and they're therefore referred to as estimates, shown with a letter E. Looking at the historical actual data, I can see that revenue growth in the past has been 6.2% and 6.6%.

Looking at this data helps us to understand the business. It shows us how the business has been performing, and why the performance has been good or bad. This helps us to understand trends within the company to compare the company's performance with peers, and to compare the company's performance with the markets and economies that the company operates in. This analysis helps us to make predictions about where the business is going. For example, if we see a company is performing better than peers, this might mean that we expect the company to continue to perform better than peers in the future, or if the company has performed particularly badly during an economic downturn, which is expected to continue next year, this helps us better predict how the company will perform next year. If our analysis reveals unusual trends or variations in the ratios. For example, revenue growth in the last year jumps to 20% from 6.2%, and that's because the company has made an acquisition in the last year, it's really helpful to explain this variance in a footnote or a comment, so that someone else using your model can understand the reason for the variance, and knows that isn't just an error. These forward assumptions will drive your forecast figures. It's very common for models to provide explicit forecasts for somewhere between five and 10 years into the future. The forecast usually need to be far out enough for the effects of any business and economic developments to stabilize. So the number of years of forecast is very dependent on both the company and the industry.

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