After Editing - Sense Check
- 02:36
Explaining the sense check after each model edit
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Transcript
A sense check is where we're just looking for things that look a little unusual. So unusual numbers negatives appearing in the wrong place, a downward trend when an upward would be expected, and maybe just unusual zeros. So let's have a look at the numbers in this table, if you look at net income at the bottom you can see in year one is 18.2 it then goes up to 18.7 but then it jumps up to 34.8 and then jumps down again to 19.9. That 34.8 feels unusual. It feels a bit out of place. As you work your way gradually up the income statement, you can see that tax expense has an unusual jump in year 3, as does operating profits, and operating costs has an unusual jump down but revenues looks okay, it would appear that something's going to bit wrong within operating costs. Maybe this is linking to the wrong cell maybe instead of having growth in operating costs, maybe we've accidentally put in negative growth. This leads us nicely onto a discussion of check the family relationships. If your sales have gone up you normally expect operating costs have gone up but if sales have gone up and operating costs have gone down that does suggest something's gone wrong other examples could be large debt repayments and yet your cash has gone up, that feels wrong. Here on our income statements we've got revenue going up. What else would I expect to happen because of this? Will unexpect my balance sheet retained earnings to go up because if revenue has gone up net income should have gone up and some of net income is normally retained. So if I'm putting Revenue up, I would definitely check that my retained earnings have gone up on the balance sheet as well. What else would I expect? Well on my cash flow statements, I should expect cash flow from operations to go up. The first line in my cash flow statement is net income. And we've just said that Revenue up should make net income go up because the cash flow statements cash flow from operations have gone up. I would expect my ending cash to go up and I'd expect that to be shown on the balance sheets. And lastly if I've got more cash then I'd expect more interesting come. So we're back now to the income statement and we create a bit of circular here, more interest is going to create more cash, which will create more interest and more cash. If I don't see any of those items happening along the way then I immediately is a red flag to me and I would investigate that checking for errors.